If Johnson County voters intended to send a message last Tuesday, it was a mixed one.
Democrats notched notable wins for sheriff and on the county commission. Rep. Sharice Davids easily retained her Congressional seat, and Kamala Harris won Johnson County by a margin similar to Joe Biden’s four years ago.
But Democrats also failed to bust the GOP supermajority in the Kansas Statehouse. Not only that, they saw Republicans flip two Olathe-area Kansas House districts. Republican District Attorney Steve Howe also won a fifth term.
The Johnson County results will provide plenty of fodder for politicians of both parties in coming days. Republicans’ initial reaction has been to credit their tax and economic policies and focus on pocketbook issues, including inflation.
But as Democrats begin to sift through the post-election data, they see a different explanation — the new legislative districts redrawn after the last census.
Democrats won some races higher on the ballot
As politicians in both parties struggle to divine the meaning of last Tuesday’s vote locally, some political observers are beginning to talk about new legislative districts redrawn two years ago after the last census as an explanation.
It only makes sense, says Melissa Stiehler, director of advocacy for Loud Light, a voter advocacy nonprofit that does not make political endorsements.
Johnson County’s results were strange, she said, because of the particular exceptions to a seemingly blue wave.
At the federal level, Kamala Harris bested Donald Trump in Johnson County 52% to 44%.
At a more local level, voters chose a Democrat to be sheriff for the first time in nearly a century. Prairie Village Police Chief Byron Roberson was the presumptive winner over former undersheriff Doug Bedford by a 3,700-vote margin.
County Commissioner Charlotte O’Hara, a Republican and vocal “conservative” voice on the commission, lost her spot to Democrat Julie Brewer by about 3,500 votes. (Results are unofficial until certification is completed Nov. 18.)
But that pattern of Democratic wins was broken by the Statehouse results, most notably with two Olathe-area Kansas House districts.
Republican Charlotte Esau is set to reclaim her seat in House District 14 in a victory over Democrat Dennis Miller, who narrowly beat Esau two years ago.
Republican Lauren Bohi is also the presumptive winner in House District 15 over Democratic incumbent Allison Hougland.
Democrats in Johnson County also failed at every turn to flip other Republican seats that they needed in order to break the veto-proof GOP supermajorities in Topeka.
Did redistricting have an impact?
Stiehler with Loud Light said she suspects redistricting accounts for at least part of the results in Statehouse contests.
“There is a lot of analysis yet to be done,” she said. “But I have to believe how the districts were drawn makes a substantial difference.”
The new district boundaries broke up communities and “were not drawn in a way to represent the will of the people,” she said.
The impact of the new districts, which went into effect in 2022, has seemed to protect incumbents of both parties, she pointed out.
Those sentiments are echoed by Rep. Rui Xu, and Sen. Dinah Sykes, both Democrats, who retained their respective seats (Sykes went unopposed this year, and Xu beat a Republican challenger).
“Redistricting played a huge part,” Sykes said.
Before the new maps were drawn, Sykes said her district leaned “purple” and included the entire city of Lenexa and a bit of Overland Park. The new district packed in more Democrats, which tended to make things less competitive in neighboring districts, she said.
“My district got a little redder,” Xu said, but he agreed the new maps tend to protect incumbents. Elsewhere, redistricting may have shored up the districts held by Republican Sens. Mike Thompson and Kellie Warren, he said.
But new district boundaries weren’t the only reason, he said.
Die-hard Trump supporters also had an impact because they tend to come out in force when Trump is on the ballot but fall off in the midterm elections.
“There’s a scenario in two years where a lot of these (House seats) could flip back. But that only really matters if we are able to win the governor’s seat, as well,” Xu said.
‘A step sideways’
Cole Robinson, a Prairie Village city councilmember and executive director of the Johnson County Democrats, admitted redistricting could have played a role but said it wasn’t the only explanation for Johnson County’s voting pattern this election.
There are always unique reasons for the results in each election, he said.
“I do think we continue to see cycle after cycle these down-ballot legislative races tend to just vote more Republican. Within Democratic circles, we’re having a lot of conversations about why that is,” he said.
People should also consider the individual campaigns and issues, he said. In many cases, Democrats seemed to be running ahead in September, only to have it slip away in the final weeks.
“I don’t feel like Johnson County — from the Democratic perspective — took a step backward Tuesday,” Robinson said. “I feel like the county took a step sideways.”
He noted Sharice Davids maintained her Congressional seat and Harris’s margin in the county was nearly identical to President Biden’s in 2020.
“Absolutely (redistricting) played a role, but the frustration for me and for a lot of other people is that we have people voting for Gov. (Laura) Kelly and then helping elect legislators that are going to vote against her agenda,” he said.
Republicans credit message of lower taxes, fighting inflation
Republican Charlotte Esau, for her part, questions whether remapping was that much of an influence.
Esau said her district consisted of about equal parts Lenexa and Olathe voters before the new maps were drawn. When the new districts were drawn in 2022, her district only included Olathe, and there were fewer Republicans and more Democrats, she said.
About half of the registered voters were new to the district and had no familiarity with her, she said.
She lost that election in 2022. But she won this year, with the same district boundaries.
This year Esau credited her hours of knocking on doors, enthusiastic volunteers, advertising campaign and higher turnout by voters excited for the presidential race.
She believes voters also responded to Republicans’ message of lowering taxes and strengthening the economy.
“So maybe it wasn’t even about redistricting two years ago,” she said.
County GOP Chair Maria Holiday declined to offer any theories about the voting patterns when asked by the Post to comment for this story.
But clearly tax and small government policies were on her mind when she spoke at local Republicans’ Election Night celebration last Tuesday.
She suggested they would continue to hammer away on the themes Republicans believe propelled them to Statehouse wins this year.
“Right after the holidays we will be gearing up again for local races for a new mayor in Overland Park, for a new city council, for things that will keep taxes lower, more freedom, smaller government, the things that we believe in,” she told a cheering crowd on Election Night.
Other local candidates who won their races Tuesday echoed that.
“We showed Kansas what’s important, right? The economy, inflation, property taxes, all the things that we’re gonna work on,” said Angela Stiens, who retained her Shawnee-area Kansas House seat in District 39.
Likewise, Kellie Warren, the victorious GOP incumbent in a Kansas Senate district in southern Overland Park and Leawood, said, “This election proves that Johnson County really cares about lowering taxes, food (prices), schools, safe neighborhoods, and that’s what I promise to keep working on for the people of Senate District 11.”
And Republican Sen. Mike Thompson of Senate District 10 in Shawnee offered this parting shot on Election Night: “Back in the spring, nobody thought I could win. They said, no, this blue wave coming across northeast Johnson County is gonna knock me out — but I said, ‘Not on our watch.’”
