According to the latest revaluation report by the county assessor’s office, the shock of the immediate post-pandemic years appears to be wearing off the Johnson County housing market.
Home values didn’t increase as much in 2024 as in the past. But they are still growing.
Interim Appraiser Kara Endicott told county commissioners at the board’s last meeting Thursday that residential property increased by 7.19% overall last year, with existing homes going up by 6.51%.
She said new construction growth was 0.68%, likely due to the fact that few new homes are available on spec. Overall property values—which include other categories besides residential—went up 7.14%.
Home prices may be stabilizing
The numbers appear to indicate that home prices are stabilizing after the wild ride of two years ago, when the annual increase was closer to 12%.
Last year, 91% of all residential properties increased in value, but of those that did, about three quarters had a gain of less than double digits, Endicott said.
There were some other indications that residential real estate is staying near the top of its cyclical fluctuation, she said.
The number of residential permits was 1,752 last year, up from 1,394 the previous year. Despite high interest rates, sale prices also rose.
“Since we have average sale prices still continuing to go up we don’t see it falling off a cliff yet,” she said.
Where did values increase the most?
The county’s “heat map” showed areas with the highest increases in value included Spring Hill area, in southeastern Johnson County, a slice of the northeast and Lake Quivira, all with growth ranging from 9% to 11.68%.
An area near the convergence of Interstate 35 and Kansas Highway 7 also had increases in that range, possibly because it is one of the few spots left in the county where attainably priced starter homes are available, she said.
However, rising sales prices continue to make affordable housing a struggle for many. The report said the average selling price for an existing single-family home last year was $535,000, while new homes sold at an average of $785,000.
That may reflect the fact that developers are still building mostly custom new homes rather than move-in-ready houses on spec, she said.
The number of affordable houses — which the county defines as $300,000 or less — has continued to drop as well. Last year, the county lost about a quarter of the stock that would fit into that category, she said.
Hotel capacity “doesn’t look great”
Zero new hotel rooms have been added in the county every year since 2021, the report shows.
That’s not a good sign less than two years before record numbers of visitors are expected to descend on the Kansas City metro for the 2026 World Cup.
“Everybody has been asking me about hotels because of the World Cup (soccer tournament), right?” Endicott said. “Well, it doesn’t look great when you start to look at it.”
The appraiser’s office doesn’t put new hotel units on the record until they are completed, she said.
Still, Endicott said she knows of at least four major hotels in line to be built — one at Kansas Highway 10 and Ridgeview Road, two in Lenexa City Center and one at the Bluhawk development in southern Overland Park.
Apartment market remains “very stable”
Apartment building has been a boom business for several years and is still “very stable,” perhaps because affordable housing is in short supply or because young potential buyers want a more mobile lifestyle, Endicott said.
In any case, “Apartments won’t be going away any time soon,” she said.
The county gained 1,900 units last year, but there are still 69,000 units in the pipeline, she said.
“Will all those happen? Maybe not,” she added. But even after going through the planning process, “if we got half of those, it would be quite a boost.”
Industrial and commercial properties
Industrial is “a bright spot,” per Endicott.
Industrial building is still on the rise as long as e-commerce and intermodal shipping remain healthy. The county added 3 million square feet of industrial space last year, and there are 19 million more in the pipeline, she said.
Growth for existing commercial property was 1.93%, but new commercial property posted a bigger gain of 5.52%, according to the report.
A big part of that has been the Panasonic electric vehicle battery plant near De Soto and a new Coca-Cola distribution plant and a new Walmart meat processing center, both in Olathe, she said.
Abated and personal property
The number of industrial revenue bonds — a type of tax incentive used to encourage new developments — has doubled in Johnson County since 2019, Endicott said.
In 2020, the office managed 103 IRBs, but now the number is over 200. Most of them are in Olathe, according to county data.
Revenue from personal property tax has continued to go down as state law changes on what is taxable.
Personal property, which has included taxes on such things as cars and boats, has dropped steadily since 2018, when the value was $93 million in Johnson County. Last year, the assessed personal property value was $55.8 million.
Commissioner Becky Fast objected to the changes, noting that the latest changes remove private yachts and planes from the taxable list.
“The ordinary person, the senior with a residential home, doesn’t get that much tax relief,” she said.
The county has begun mailing more than 221,000 notices of appraised value to property owners.
